Friday, April 1, 2016

CairnsWatch Watch

The latest monthly HTW CairnsWatch for March was out yesterday. Through the first half of last year I had some problems with the airport trend analysis: Say what?. I have the same problem again although perhaps not as extreme.
"...passenger numbers at the domestic terminal (which also include international tourists arriving on domestic flights) have increased in trend terms by 8.3%. Overall passenger numbers at Cairns Airport have grown in trend terms by 10.1% over the period from February 2015 to February 2016."
Recent growth has been robust but I can't see how a trend quite that high can be derived. There has been a single month (January) with domestic growth above that in the last year.

Source: Cairns Airport

The trend line there is a simple 12 month moving average currently just below 5%. A 3 month average is 7.0%. Similarly the overall trend growth at CairnsWatch just looks a bit high to reconcile on current numbers.

Apart from that the most significant item of interest in this CairnsWatch is probably a move down in rental vacancy rate trends.

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