Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Building approval trend subsides in Cairns

Building approvals data for September was out last week as reported at Conus: Building Approvals pick up in Cairns; dip in Cassowary Coast
In Cairns (incl Port Douglas) the unadjusted data showed 61 approvals (up from 44 in Aug) and as a result the Conus Trend has improved slightly to 54 (with Aug revised up to 53 from 52). However, despite this improvement, Trend Approvals remain 12.1% below their level of a year ago.
The trend decline in Cairns over the past year is a concern given the previous recovery was from a very low base and never reached anything approaching a robust level. Pete has included Douglas in the Cairns LGA data for consistency in the series through the de-amalgamation period. Douglas (16) had a strong month and was mostly responsible for that increased September number.

A look at the SA3 numbers that make up Cairns SA4 shows that Tableland (36) had a standout month. Conus has also noted a trend improvement on the Cassowary Coast over the past year. So when we look at the now completed first quarter of FY2016 we find that the Cairns urban area (Cairns North + Cairns South = 138) has been outperformed by the surrounding regions (Cassowary Coast + Douglas + Tableland = 146). That is despite significantly lower population and projected growth rates.

While the volatile unit sector has been prominent in the national and state numbers there are none posted so far in FY2016 for Cairns. Not sure where the Aspial proposal and others are at but nothing has appeared yet in the ABS data?

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