Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Cyclone misogyny: deja vu journalism

Where have I seen this before?

Yes, it's the same statistically debunked "research" on hurricane names in the USA dredged up and recycled again by an "award winning" ABC journalist in Darwin almost eighteen (18) months after its first run around the media circuit, which had also included the ABC.

This "research" was statistically annihilated by Paul Fritjers from UQ at Club Troppo: How to lie with statistics: the case of female hurricanes. Which I then posted on at Loose Change: How to lie with statistics: the case of female hurricanes.

Never mind. La Canna has sent it off to the BOM and elicited a gotcha response for a headline:
"We will have to get someone onto it," Mr Sharp said.
Probably best not to waste scarce funds on this one Sharpie! Hopefully we will hear nothing further on it from the BOM but there is plenty of scope for another trot around the media circuit.

Probably shouldn't be too tough on La Canna. Must be difficult as an ABC journo in Darwin trying to compete with the now officially PM sanctioned NT News.

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Gold Coast Glitters

Regional labour force data was this week and as usual Conus has posted analysis of the numbers: Not much joy in regional jobs data although Cairns Youth shows some positives
The Trend in Cairns shows us that jobs continue to be lost. For the fifth consecutive month Trend Employment has fallen; this month by 400. Over the course of the past 12 months Trend Employment in Cairns has risen by just 500 with most of the gains made in the first quarter of this year having been wiped out. The Trend Participation Rate has also been falling (now at 59.9) and this has been the main reason the Trend Unemployment Rate has actually moved slightly lower, despite weaker jobs growth.
A few months ago I posted on the regional employment split between SEQ and the rest: Queensland regions skew south east. That split remains and Gold Coast, by far the largest population region outside Greater Brisbane, remains a star performer. The Gold Coast participation rate has now risen to an historical high for the series on the Conus Trend and makes an interesting comparison with Queensland and Cairns.

Source: Conus Trend & ABS
Once upon a time Gold Coast had a reputation as a retirement destination which could have at least partly explained a participation rate below the Queensland average. Meanwhile the participation rate in Cairns has historically trended above the Queensland rate. The significant divergence there in recent years is presumably outside any volatility attributable to sample size and volatility in the regional data?

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Building approval trend subsides in Cairns

Building approvals data for September was out last week as reported at Conus: Building Approvals pick up in Cairns; dip in Cassowary Coast
In Cairns (incl Port Douglas) the unadjusted data showed 61 approvals (up from 44 in Aug) and as a result the Conus Trend has improved slightly to 54 (with Aug revised up to 53 from 52). However, despite this improvement, Trend Approvals remain 12.1% below their level of a year ago.
The trend decline in Cairns over the past year is a concern given the previous recovery was from a very low base and never reached anything approaching a robust level. Pete has included Douglas in the Cairns LGA data for consistency in the series through the de-amalgamation period. Douglas (16) had a strong month and was mostly responsible for that increased September number.

A look at the SA3 numbers that make up Cairns SA4 shows that Tableland (36) had a standout month. Conus has also noted a trend improvement on the Cassowary Coast over the past year. So when we look at the now completed first quarter of FY2016 we find that the Cairns urban area (Cairns North + Cairns South = 138) has been outperformed by the surrounding regions (Cassowary Coast + Douglas + Tableland = 146). That is despite significantly lower population and projected growth rates.

While the volatile unit sector has been prominent in the national and state numbers there are none posted so far in FY2016 for Cairns. Not sure where the Aspial proposal and others are at but nothing has appeared yet in the ABS data?