Saturday, August 15, 2015

Employment: Queensland regions skew south east

Regional labour force data for July was released last week and as always Conus has our regional trends covered: Cairns unemployment rate up; but the headline hides a slightly stronger story

There have been a few posts and comments around that this latest data may be starting to show a stronger story generally for the regions compared to the capitals. That may be so but there can be some big differences between regions. This is employment growth over the last year for the Queensland SA4 regions from the Conus Trend data:

 
 
Despite the advantages of the trend data we need to be a bit cautious here about some of these numbers at the outliers. Outback stretches all the way from Torres Strait to Birdsville with not much to connect the economies of those regions. It also has the smallest regional population so a smaller sample size spread across a huge geography. Have no idea how the ABS could possibly get a reasonable representative sample. Having said that the outcome seems to fit with the prevailing narrative re the resources sector and drought in this area.
 
Despite the surprising performance of Wide Bay it remains if anything the employment and demographic basket case of Queensland with an unemployment rate at 9.1%. Although at last thankfully the participation rate has recovered somewhat from some poor numbers below 50%.
 
In between those two what stands out is that the regional growth has been skewed by some very strong numbers in the largest population regions of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. Cairns also is not doing too badly here in a relative sense although perhaps should be doing much better.
 
The ABS numbers includes the Gold and Sunshine Coasts with Rest of Qld outside Greater Brisbane. To repeat a previous exercise let's strip out the Gold and Sunshine Coasts to combine with Greater Brisbane to form SEQ compared to the remaining Regions with numbers from the Conus Trend:
 
 
 


 
That last graph should also show why the previous LNP government Queensland Plan for regional population parity with SEQ was stupid bordering on innumerate with regional Queensland failing to make ground even in an historic resources boom. Also note from the top graph that the other regions to post strong employment growth over the past year, Toowoomba and Wide Bay, are contiguous with SEQ: Queensland SA4 Regions Map 
 
 
Gene Tunny has also taken this up at Queensland Economy Watch: Big divide between SEQ and rest of Qld in jobs growth

3 comments:

  1. Great post, Mark. Really interesting chart showing declining regional employment share. I'll link to it in a future post of mine.

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  2. Agree...very interesting stuff and looks like the Conus Trend data is broadly matching the 12 month ma series from the Queensland Treasury that Gene has posted on (particularly when you strip out the Gold and Sunshine Coast numbers.

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  3. Thanks for comments and feedback. Much appreciated. I wonder when BHP will start to question whether their decision to use Cairns as a FIFO centre for Cavil Ridge really made economic sense.

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