Monday, June 1, 2015

A China fade for arrivals

It has been a while since I've had a look at the overseas arrivals data. After some changes last year there have been problems compiling the data and the ABS has only now caught up to January. Pete Faulkner at Conus has been diligently following the progress: Arrivals up but the China boom is waning

The trend for Chinese arrivals looks to have weakened quite significantly in recent months ahead of the lunar new year period. ABS do a seasonal adjustment for the lunar new year so what I have done is overlay all three series.

 
This shows just how significant the Chinese new year season is for tourism and the seasonal adjustment from the ABS can be huge. The faint dotted line there is a 3 month moving average thrown in to smooth out the seasonal variation in the original data a bit where the new year period overlaps months. Worth watching whether recent trend weakness is sustained or just a flat period before the new year and how it progresses after that period. The previous weak period in 2013 which shows up mostly in the seasonal data was the regulatory changes around package tours.
 
Meanwhile the latest data has allowed me update a favourite graph of the state where most time spent for visitors. This is all short term visitors which would also include such as business and education.

 

Oh no! Surely Victoria can't really be about to overtake Queensland?

2 comments:

  1. That second chart is really interesting. Thanks for posting. I hope you don't mind if I talk about it on my blog and link to yours, of course.

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