Thursday, April 9, 2015

A Weather Watch Note

Apart from a few bursts it doesn't feel like we have had much of a wet season really. This is monthly rainfall since 2007 at Cairns Aero with a 12 month moving average relative to the red line of the long term monthly average:

2013 certainly broke the run of previously wetter than average seasons. What period did the Australian Government Actuary use for his insurance study again? Oh, that'd be right!
Last year was boosted by a late season appearance from Cyclone Ita in April. The weekly tropical climate note doesn't seem too optimistic for a repeat this year:
With active convection from the MJO over the Indian Ocean, northern Australia has seen dry conditions. Most models agree that the MJO will weaken as it moves towards the Maritime Continent region toward the end of this week. If the MJO weakens it will have little influence on northern Australia; neither suppressing nor enhancing rainfall. However, storms will likely return to coastal parts of the tropical north where humidity remains high. Another burst of the monsoon over Australia is unlikely, although wet conditions and tropical cyclones can develop in April without the influence of the MJO.
A potential El Nino also remains ahead although tis seems to have been lingering for some time now:
However, history has shown El Niño does not always develop from the ocean trends currently observed. All international climate models monitored by the Bureau predict the tropical Pacific Ocean will reach or exceed El Niño thresholds by mid-year.
Tinaroo is still above the levels of this time last year before Cyclone Ita. Copperlode is just over 100% as it should be towards he end of the wet season.

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