Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Master Builders Gapwatch

I always have fun with the Queensland Master Builders state of industry conditions report. Most particularly the forecasting capability of members and whether they will ever close the gap between their forecast for the coming quarter and the subsequent actual outcome in the residential building conditions index. The gap converged the previous quarter but has now widened again slightly.

More interesting was that the forecast for the coming quarter declined to the lowest index level since the September 2013 quarter forecast. Quite possibly a state election during the month may have had some influence on survey results.

This is not the way QMB do their graphs but I prefer my method given the poor historical correlation between the actual and forecasts. Perhaps the two lines could converge and cross over yet?


The survey results for the Queensland economy and outlook have also been trending down since the September quarter 2013. There is some variation between the regions and in FNQ it was noted that trading conditions had finally resurfaced into positive territory on the index although the outlook for the coming March quarter was more subdued.


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