Saturday, January 31, 2015

Queensland unhinged: Polls, pundits and the odds (updated)


As the Queensland polls draw closer to closure may I reflect on my post of the first weekend of the campaign: Polls, pundits and the odds.
 
There was an excellent post yesterday at the Oz by Jack the Insider with an allegedly unique combination of polls and betting odds but who am I to doubt such an esteemed psephologist: Gambling on Queensland's Future
That leaves us with LNP 44, Labor 41, KAP 3, Independent 1 and a hung parliament. Minority government. Delicious chaos.
Don’t forget, this method comes with a five seat differential. It’s entirely possible the LNP can scramble to 45 seats or perhaps one or two more and govern in its own right but Labor most certainly cannot.

Jack came to a baseline 38 for the ALP with a further 9 vulnerable based on the odds: Springwood, Albert, Mirani, Pine Rivers, Everton, Pumicestone, Broadwater and Barron River and one held by an independent (the seat of Gaven). Jack has an excellent analysis of the oddball Queenslander seats such as Gaven and the ghosts of Pauline Hansen which may play a role in any hung outcome with potential for surprises. I will ignore these seats prone to insanity.
 
I only looked at the Sportsbet odds and managed to get the key seat odds there this morning before they closed the book. I did a quick tally of individual seats on Sportsbet yesterday which had LNP 48, ALP 37, Others 4. I compiled a Sportsbet list today where the odds were close enough for the outsider to be less than $5. I have Burleigh also in my vulnerable LNP list but now wondering if I got the odds the wrong way around on that? 
 
Anyway to go back to the first week of the campaign when I compiled the initial data the spread of seats now regarded as critical looked like this with odds translated to probabilities:
 

 
That was first weekend of the campaign. Red are the ones where odds currently favour ALP. The pattern there is exactly what you would expect. Now look at this for these electorates with the probability v the current margin derived from Antony Green at ABC:
 
 
Again what should be expected at an early stage with odds correlated with margin. The one most divergent there is Ashgrove again should be expected. So how has this changed between the first weekend and today for these critical electorates:
 
 
No longer an even curve and a distinct split with whoever is favourite opening a lead. What does the XY scatter look like:
 
 
Same again with a split between the two. No idea what it means but will be curious as to how the results and odds work out.
 
To get to a hung parliament the ALP need to get at least three of those nine or so most contested where the odds currently favour LNP. To get to an absolute majority would be something of a stretch.  This doesn't come out much different from Jack the Insider although there are several more caveats and uncertainties this time than may usually be so which could bring any scenario or analysis unstuck. 
 
Barron River and possibly Mundingburra are the ones in NQ that come into play here and where the odds have actually moved towards the LNP since the campaign started. Again, in FNQ Barron River and Cairns are also very different demographics and should be expected to diverge from a previously similar outcome.
 
However, what would I know. I gamble about once a decade and back in 2004 the odds and polls didn't seem to match so I was the mug who punted for Latham on Sportsbet! The odds turned out to be better than the polls then so I did my money but not always so. Who knows this time around o_O
 
Update: Queensland the unhinged state! Well I guess an outsider win in a stretch is probably good for the bookies? Bastards! Someone has done their money in Barron River anyway! Meanwhile down in NSW Coalition $1.01 Labor $17.00 *slap* No! No!

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