Monday, January 12, 2015

Election 2015: We are all stupid now #1

The Newman employment announcement yesterday included a target of 209,000 over the six years to 2021. Queensland Economy Watch beat me to an intended graph of historical six year employment growth: Qld Govt’s new jobs target much more achievable than previous 4% unemployment rate target

This indicates that the target based on Treasury advice is conservative by historical standards and particularly when population and labour force growth are considered. I'm surprised this hasn't attracted more attention given that Treasurer Tim was still spruiking the 4% target until quite recently as the two are fundamentally inconsistent.

Conus has parsed a few parameters based on historical assumptions which could still hypothetically see an unemployment rate increase to 7.7%:  What does the LNP pledge for 209,000 extra jobs actually mean?

Another way to look at it I had a very quick preliminary look at the Queensland population forecasts by age group. These are supplied with medium / low / high projections. It would appear to require something close to the low forecast to stabilise employment to relevant population ratios around recent levels, even allowing for aging, if only 209,000 jobs are created over the period. Weak interstate migration has been particularly noted in recent years.

Pete again asks the question at Conus of why politicians persist with such specific targets and perceived promises over something where they have limited influence anyway. Sportsbet is still backing an LNP Premier Tim after January 31 so maybe the focus will then return to the more stupid 4% target.

1 comment:

  1. Nice post, KS. I'd been meaning to look at the population projections but ran out of time.

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