Thursday, November 6, 2014

Queensland: the basket case economy?

The latest edition of the recently contentious labour force statistics have been released by the ABS: Unemployment steady at 6.2% but QLD tanks

Which reminded me of this Facebook post from a prominent local politician now more than two years ago:
From political blog Ambit Gambit, explaining the fiscal balance position our government inherited:
"Queensland entered the GFC with an unemployment rate second only to WA, and it is now vying with the basket case economy of Tasmania for the worst.
The above quoted statement was based on a flawed misrepresentation at that time and in an era when the Premier was comparing Queensland to Spain. So, with some irony the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Queensland in October surpassed even poor old Tassie.

Both these states were extremely volatile and moved in opposite directions with Queensland up from 6.3% to 7.0% while Tassie fell to 6.9%. The more reliable trend data was far more forgiving with Queensland at 6.7% still comfortably below Tassie at 7.2% with both unchanged.

Ah Queensland! Tassie one day! Spain the next?

There is a good explanation of recent contentious issues around the seasonal adjustment from Peter Martin: How the Bureau of Statistics got it wrong



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