Monday, November 3, 2014

Master Builders close the gap

Building approvals data was out this morning and a summary can be found at Conus: Building Approvals data shows the upswing is running out of steam. Queensland looks better than the national results although a prevailing theme remains lumpiness in the units sector.

Conus has also posted on the latest Queensland Master Builders survey of industry conditions where an improved outlook in FNQ is noted: Master Builders data points to improvement .

The past reliability of this survey is noted at Conus so I have updated my graph comparing forecast with actual index outcomes for Queensland residential building:

The gap continues to close and the actual was just -4.4 below their forecast for the quarter. The quarterly forecast number hasn't really shifted since the December 2013 quarter while the actual has played catch up.

The following comment in the FNQ section of this months survey was also noted:
The availability of land has emerged as a significant constraint. It remains to be seen whether land can be supplied to meet this growing demand.

The most recent data from the Queensland Government Statistician doesn't indicate any shortage of approved lots in Cairns relative to building approvals.

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