Monday, September 22, 2014

Revisiting the investment clock

An excellent post from Tim Harford worth a read: How to see into the future
This wasn’t because Keynes was a great economic forecaster. His original approach had been predicated on timing the business cycle, moving into and out of different investment classes depending on which way the economy itself was moving. This investment strategy was not a success, and after several years Keynes’s portfolio was almost 20 per cent behind the market as a whole.
See previous post: A treatise on clocks. As far as I can make out the 'Cairns Clock' there has been stuck in about the same position for almost two years now? Enthusiastic promoters of the investment/economic clock should be handled with caution. The sponsored posts on my FB timeline have been filled with property spruikers lately and i'm pretty sure each of them has a clock with a time adjusted to their sales strategy.

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