Monday, August 25, 2014

Master Builders close the gap

I always look forward to the survey of industry conditions from the Qld Master Builders if only to see by how much they missed their forecast for the quarter. My benchmark here is the residential sector conditions. The record may almost be worthy of the Guinness Book of Records so reliable it has become that it will miss their optimistic forecast for the next quarter. It did so again in June but by a record low of just -9.9 index points. This compares with an average miss of -16.2 for the available survey series since 2010:


The actual estimate of residential conditions for the previous quarter has now risen almost to the 50 index midpoint level. However the forecast for the future quarters have been declining all year now to close the historical gap. Who knows what could happen if this trend continues. I have previously opined that the builders fill in these survey responses together down the pub on a Friday afternoon.

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