Thursday, August 28, 2014

A new year for Cairns Airport statistics

Cairns Airport Statistics have now been posted for July and the new financial year has also brought a revamp of the format. Domestic passengers through the international terminal (T1) have now been included with domestic terminal (T2) passengers. Previously they were lumped in with international transits and domestic traffic numbers represented only the domestic terminal.

This change is welcome and more comprehensively represents domestic passengers. However there still appear to be some issues with the series here which has previously been a source of frustration. This is an update of previously posted graphs with a comparison between the old and new stats:


 
Mostly fine although with some divergence particularly around 2009-2010 where the updated domestic data is significantly weaker post GFC. So to more directly compare the two series (new - old) we can graph the difference between the two data series. This should derive domestic passengers through the international terminal:
 
 
Clearly domestic passengers through T1 can't be negative so last August becomes a problem, and have also re-checked my numbers for that month which seem ok unless they were subsequently revised. However , the significant anomaly is the period starting in January 2009 and ending in June 2010.
 
It was previously suggested by the airport that I could unravel the former statistics to derive a comparable series to this new format. I tried this last year and gave up when it produced exactly the above anomaly and so have since just followed the T2 domestic numbers as a continuous reliable series. Perhaps I should feel satisfied that the airport have now replicated my anomaly in their own numbers.
 
Anyway, and assuming the more recent years are valid (ex August 2013), there is a clear trend in declining domestic traffic through T1 which is to be expected. This will have had a small offsetting impact on the domestic growth trend at T2.
 
The relatively soft rebound in July is also confirmed with domestic growth just 2.4% following a negative growth month in June. July is always the busiest month of the year so perhaps there may even be capacity constraints at peak times given strong anecdotal reports for the month?
 
Previous post on the July numbers from Auckland International Airport where the domestic passengers reported appear to include transits: A timely Posting of Cairns Airport stats

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