Thursday, July 17, 2014

What goes up ......

Well this time it was the unrealistically pronounced bounce in female unemployment from last month which turned around and went back down again:

Although there are still some 'weirdnesses' there in the unadjusted ABS data with female participation and number unemployed unusually low. The raw numbers here for June would have us believe the male unemployment rate was up at 12.2% while the female rate was down at just 3.3%. Perhaps there was too much sport on TV in June?
The components will inevitably become less reliable as they break down into diminishing sample sizes as evident again with that controversial youth unemployment rate. Pete Faulkner at Conus has done a good update on this with his trend numbers and a nice graph in this months post:  Cairns unemployment ticks higher but Trend is still down 
The Conus Trend overall in Cairns for the month was slightly more positive:
The Conus Trend employment series shows a total of 700 new jobs (down slightly from +800 in May). {The original ABS data shows a monthly decline of 6,600 jobs after a gain of 8,900 the previous month; which gives us some idea of why the unadjusted data is of such limited use!} The Conus Trend unemployment rate for June now stands at 7.6% which is a slight fall from the (upwardly revised) level of 7.7% last month. Trend participation remains unchanged at 61.5.
Pete has also compiled and made available in excel format trend data for all Queensland regions. So I have taken the liberty to compile from this a comparison of employment in our tropical coastal regions which all have a labour force of similar size.
 Data source: Conus Trend
Surprising how closely Cairns and Townsville have correlated on this metric over the last two years!

1 comment:

  1. Good to see someone make use of the Trend data. Cheers Mark!