Saturday, May 10, 2014

Queensland Master Builders maintain perfect record of wrong forecasts

The Queensland Master Builders survey of industry conditions for the March quarter passed me by when it was released last month. I previously took issue with some aspects of this regular quarterly survey which was posted now three months ago at Loose Change: Master Builders wage concerns not on the level?
Yep, on their index scale the forecasts are wildly wrong and consistently over-estimate by between 12.7 and 21.2, with an average of 16.2! On that basis the next conditions outcome is unlikely to exceed 48 or so rather than the 59.9 survey outcome? The slope of the upward curve could be telling indicator? It was extremely erect in September!

So it was pleasing to see in this latest survey that the actual result came out at 47.6 (residential) just below my forecast upper limit of 48, and way below the 59.9 forecast by the builders themselves for their own business.

However, to their credit this is actually the closest they have ever achieved to their forecast which is actually for the coming quarter presumably already commenced at the time of the survey for the recently completed quarter.

One would have thought it disturbing for most people that somebody could so easily forecast their own business more accurately than themselves? I remain of the opinion that the builders complete their responses to this survey down the pub on a Friday afternoon?


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