Thursday, May 15, 2014

Cairns employment: participation rate remains the killer

The monthly employment Keno numbers from the ABS are out, and actually mostly more benign than usual volatility for most of regional Queensland if anything, except the headline Cairns unemployment rate. A media hyperbole watch is issued with the headline unemployment rate for Cairns doing a typically volatile swan dive down to 7.2 % from 10.1% the previous month.

Note again that these regional numbers from the ABS are neither seasonally or trend adjusted and these raw numbers in Cairns should if anything be improving at this time of year. Note that both the seasonally adjusted and trend rates for Queensland from the ABS increased in April while the raw numbers fell.

However, the Conus seasonal and trend numbers do suggest at least stabilisation and possibly modest recovery: Big improvement in Cairns jobs data

The big statistical issue remains, as also suggested at Conus, the participation rate where the chart below is looking rather sad.


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