Thursday, April 3, 2014

Sqwarking parrot overwhelms shark jump as tourism attraction!

So it came to be that the Member for Cairns came to announce positive economic news for Cairns via his Facebook forum of ignorance and sycophancy:
Three bits of great news released on the economic front today:
 * The QLD tourism industry contributed $23 billion to the state economy in 2013 - an increase of $3.5 billion since the 2012 election - and tourism jobs increased 13 per cent over the last two years (source: Australian Bureau of Statistics) 
Well, yes, that is only one bit and issue will be taken subsequently with the Parrot also reviving faith in the property price Ponzi as a source of economic growth. Not sure if he cleared this first with Guvnor Glenn?

However, when it comes to the numbers above it is noted that he has since adjusted the source to the State Tourism Satellite Accounts from Tourism Research Australia. The numbers he has posted are copied from a media release by tourism minister Stuckey. I must say these accounts make fabulous use of input-output multipliers! Which is subject for a future post!

I'm not sure and will check where the $23 billion comes from but presume it relates to tourism consumption rather than GDP or other measures in the accounts? (refer to comment below from pete Faulkner at Conus). The numbers here also relate to financial years with these most recent accounts for FY2013. Consequently any reference to changes "since the 2012 election" are spurious anyway, or what some would call a "lie".

The employment number over two years is particularly interesting also. Again, the numbers here relate to financial years with most recent FY2013. So the 13% increase is since FY 2011 which was the most depressed low for Queensland tourism and the year when Anna Bligh famously declared that Qld was underwater.

Almost all of that increase was actually a recovery in FY2012. When was the election again? The increase in FY2013 was actually a quite low percentage but will check and post a graph on that as there are a few different numbers in these accounts to digest.

1 comment:

  1. The figures quoted relate to "Total State Gross Product" as calculated in the State Satellite Accounts. 2012-13 was $23 bn, 2010-11 was $19.5bn, hence the $3.5bn increase claim. However, obviously, a lot of that increase will have occurred before the Mar '12 election. If we take changes since the end of the Mar quarter 2012 to the end of the June quarter 2013 (ie FYE 2012-13) using the TRA Intl and Domestic Visitor Surveys then the expenditure from tourism data is (not comparable to State Gross Product but the trend should be similar):-
    year to Mar 2012
    Intl $3.8 bn
    Dom O/N $13.4 bn
    Dom Day $3.9 bn TOTAL $21.1 bn
    year to June 2013
    Intl $4.0 bn
    Dom O/N $14.1 bn
    Dom Day $4.4 bn TOTAL $22.5 bn

    On this basis the increase since the election to the end of FY 2012-13 would be $1.4 bn (or 6.6%) in 15 months. Applying that increase to the State Gross Product number would result in a "starting figure" in Mar 2012 around $21.55 bn which gives us a $1.4 bn increase (rather than $3.5 bn) since the election (ie the same as from the expenditure figures...which kinda makes sense)
    So, of the $3.5 bn increase claimed, actually $2.1bn of it occurred in the period from June 2011 to Mar 2012, with the remaining $1.4 bn since the election. The 2011-12 figure of State Gross Product $22 bn as at June 2012 would support that case.