Today's headline, unadjusted (and therefore virtually meaningless) unemployment rate for Nov has seen a spectacular drop to 4.6% from 6.2% last month and 9.4% just 2 months ago! Clearly we can place little faith in such wild swings. However, our own Trend series supports the case that there has been a significant drop in the unemployment rate in recent months. The Conus Trend unemployment rate for Nov comes in at 6.5%, down from a downwardly revised 7.1% in Oct.A flag on sample size was also noted last month and again this month. A quick browse through the regions shows quite a few such flags appearing. The Sunshine Coast unemployment rate fell from 6.2% to just 3.0% this month and also comes with a flag.
An interesting aspect in the state data is an update on a previously posted graph comparing the unemployment rate in Brisbane with the balance of the state. The Bush here is patriotic maroon while Brisbane is evil blue. I have added in a 3 month moving average and note also that these are raw unadjusted numbers:
So a 5.0% unemployment rate for the Bush is now below 5.5% in Brisbane. This is actually quite rare for Brisbane to be higher and has only been repeated less than a handful of previous months since 2007, and never by as much as 0.5%. That could be an interesting comparison to watch!