Thursday, October 17, 2013

Employment stalled

Winning lotto numbers this month are 9.4, 135.6, 14.1 and 66.1 in the Far North regional employment statistics from the ABS. To parse this result:

  1. The unemployment rate bounced up to 9.4% from 7.7% last month. This is somewhat above the trend of recent months.
  2. Employment estimate was up by 3,200 to 135,600 although the trend remains stalled.
  3. At 14,100 the number of persons estimated unemployed were also up by 3,100.
  4. The participation rate bounced back to a more 'normal' 66.1% from last months record low.
So the participation rate again was a key driver of the volatile monthly unemployment rate and Conus wins the crystal ball award for this comment a month ago:
Any bounce in the Participation Rate in coming months to a more "normal" level would be reflected in a sharp spike in the unemployment rate, barring some very robust employment growth at the same time.
The stalled employment trend remains a concern and particularly the recovery apparent in female employment throughout 2012 appears to have rolled over again on the conservative 12 month moving average:

 Note: Trend line is 12 month moving average
Update: Seasonally adjusted and trend analysis and commentary from Conus: Participation Rate rebound pushes unemployment rate higher in FNQ:
"Our Trend series is showing 7,000 fewer in work than in Jan this year .........."

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