Saturday, June 29, 2013

CairnsWatch June Report

"There were no substantive changes in direction of the Cairns economy over the last month. Cairns is continuing to build its economic recovery momentum."

No news is good news perhaps? Well at least the Cairns post saw it as all good news:

THE economy of Cairns continues its upward climb with jobs, tourism and housing leading the city's financial recovery.
Employment, airport passengers and home sales are increasing while unemployment and forced property sales are down, according to the June Cairns- Watch report.
Housing? The building approvals trend in the report (blue line) remains flat at depressed levels around historical lows.  Rick describes a "modicum" of local building activity. Modicum definition: "A small, moderate, or token amount". There should be only one way it can go from here! At the same time the firmest trend in median property prices is in vacant land?

Forced property sales have been included in this month's report and show the receiver overhang may now finally be almost out of the market which can only be positive. Mortgagee sales have declined but are not low and still above average pre-crash levels.

Employment remains the most positive regional indicator with the HTW trend employment increasing 4.8% over the past year. This compares with the 5.6% based on raw numbers (which were the subject of a recent post) and 3.8% based on the Government Statisticians 12 month moving average. Again, appropriate trend data should be preferred with this dubiously volatile data.

The report notes an overall increase in airport traffic of 2.3% over the past years but does also note some soft recent months following a strong start to the year. Could this be Chinese seasonal counter-cyclicality? While trends remain sound the most recent monthly traffic data point on the graph at the international terminal is a shocker which can only be hoped to be some kind of outlier?

As always it is interesting what the Cairns Post doesn't publish or mention from the report:

Who can resist a tongue poke at the Compost? Not me! Meanwhile the weather is fine, the City seems busy and vibrant with school holidays, and an influx on Rugby Lions soon to be replaced by ukulele revellers: Cairns Ukulele Festival

Update: Conus has a good analysis of the Cairn's Posts reported property boom: House price rise in Cairns

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