Tuesday, June 18, 2013

A curious poll result

The current political environment has become noxiously toxic. I was at high school during the turbulent Whitlam era when yes, vigorous debate extended into social forums. However the personal vitriol we are now experiencing against the current PM is unprecedented in a way which does the nation, or those responsible, no credit:

Polls as part of politics have become theatre and it was interesting to see a post this week from Poll Bludger on a poll by Essential Research when people were asked how they voted in 2010:

Respondents were also asked who they voted for in 2010, an exercise which is generally recognised as being blighted by the tendency of some to mis-remember having voted for the winning party. Sure enough, once “didn’t vote” and “don’t know” are excluded, the results are 44% for Labor, 42% for the Coalition and 8% for the Greens, compared with election results of 38.0%, 43.6% and 11.8%.
Some differences here apperar to be outside the margin of error for the poll. There were 4% of people who didn't know how they voted in 2010 and 7% polled who didn't vote. However, a statistically relevant proportion of them polled were deluded on who they actually voted for last election?

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