Thursday, May 9, 2013

Data & Policy Conundrums

National labour force data today was more positive than expected. As a result the $AUD shot right up (update: not for long though!) to where it had been before the interest rate cut on Tuesday! So did the RBA get the rate cut right or wrong?

I wont make any comment there is plenty of commentary elsewhere including a summary by Conus from an FNQ perspective. Ex Cairns resident Grogs Gamut also has his usual extensive graph laden illumination of the tea leaf data.

An interesting aspect today was that the South Koreans surprised and followed the RBA with a similar unexpected rate cut! Also noted in today's release was that the ABS is moving to online returns for the labour force sample and also revisions to the sample following the census.

Update: Ricardian Ambivalence also has excellent analysis of the data with his usual warning that the survey is primarily designed to measure the unemployment rate rather than numbers employed. Also Grogs Gamut has a further post with a particular focus on Queensland: State v State (Or don't be a woman in Qld)

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