Friday, April 19, 2013

Seasonal moves on employment?

The Far North unemployment rate jumped back up to 9.1% in March. While disappointing it should still be considered within the context of monthly statistical volatility and seasonal factors. Conus has an analysis of this months numbers:  FNQ Unemployment up but the trend improvement remains intact...just

The seasonally adjusted and trend unemployment rates derived by Conus are more stable at 7.8% and 7.7% although there are concerns that healthy jobs growth will be required to maintain the recent unemployment trend given the participation rate.

The employment estimates of Far North are typically weak in the new year, as would be expected with the wet season. To demonstrate I have graphed a comparison of employment (thousands) for the December and March quarters since 2007/08 as a 3 month average.

The fall this year is typical of previous episodes and retains the comparative employment growth of recent months.
Update: Rick Carr has also today posted his latest CairnsWatch

1 comment:

  1. Interesting Mark, certainly suggests that the solid recovery in jobs growth that we've been witnessing is intact. Let's hope so!
    I've written to Rick at HTW regarding his error quoting UR at 7.9% (rather than 9.1%) in March and am wondering if that error may have been input into his trend series and caused the low result he gets. His trend series has consistently been a little lower than mine but seems to have diverged sharply this month.