Monday, March 18, 2013

Liars, Damned Liars & Steve Lewis

Loose Change has about five uncompleted draft posts and an uncompleted project with local policy relevance which may actually have some significance for the lives of real people! However, all these require actual thought unlike the cheap journalism of News Ltd!

So it was that a response to todays report in the Sydney Daily Telegraph that corporate insolvency had escalated because of the carbon tax became inevitable! This report appeared under the co-byline of one Steve Lewis, who is somewhat a controversial character involved in episodes around the Slipper sexual harrassment case where a judge deemed the motive to be political and Lewis appeared to be a player rather than a reporter.

Anyway, lets go to what Steve has said now:
The Australian Securities & Investments Commission reports there were 10,632 company collapses for the 12 months to March 1 - averaging 886 a month - with the number of firms being placed in administration more than 12 per cent higher than during the global financial crisis.
Actually, not.  The 10,632 were the 12 months to December 31, 2012. In terms of how this relates to the alleged carbon tax correlation and validity  ...... lets do a graph:



This is ASIC monthly data for companies entering external administration. Yes, this is a graph of the exact same data used by Steve Lewis shown as a 12 month moving average going all the way back to 1999. It was indeed 10,632 in the year to December 31, and not March as in the Tele. However can one see a further problem with the analysis here in the attempted correlation with the carbon tax?

Yes, you guessed it! Insolvency rates have DECLINED slightly since the carbon tax was introduced at July 1 last year, and doubled in the last 8 years of Howard ?! What does this mean? It means nothing which any professional journalist with half a brain should have known from brief inquiry! Such is News!


A strangely prevelant phenomenon within News Ltd : Liars, Damned Liars, and Gavin King;
Black Holes & Supernovas






 

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