Thursday, November 1, 2012

CairnsWatch in the data mix

Recent days have thrown some interesting data into the mixer and revived debate twixt those who think interest rates must be cut and them who think they shouldn't have already been cut. Building approvals from ABS generated positive comment:

Conus Consulting: Good news on building approvals
Queensland Economy Watch: Building industry recovery looks more likely 

Credit data from the RBA was less positive with an alternative perspective from The Kouk. Tracking the alternative perspectives on residential property in Australia is quite easy. If you want the negative perspective you go to Macrobusiness. If you want the positive perspective you go to Christopher Joye. If you are undecided you just open a bottle of Shiraz and enjoy the debate!

Rick Carr has also released his CairnsWatch report to provide perspective of Cairns position. Yet again when it comes to property the story is low and declining vacancy rates. However, as with so many trends, Cairns is not unique. Low vacancy rates have become a feature more widely without yet triggering booming property activity eg: Perth with a vacancy rate below 1%.

Rick did refer to this in his recent Cairns Chamber presentation in the context that we shouldn't expect investors to flood into Cairns property because of low vacancy rates because there are many other attractive markets with similarly low vacancy rates. The comments on rents are also interesting:
"Between September 2011 and September 2012, the weighted average median rent increased from $325 to $350 per week for houses, and from $240 to $255 per week for
units. Rents are likely to continue increasing during 2012-13 as the rental supply stays
tight
."
They are quite substantial increases of 7.7% and 6.3% respectively for the year given the high unemployment rate and languid economy. As posted previously Cairns is well represented with two of the top fifty rental suburbs in Australia according to RP Data.

Beyond residential property the continuing trend and strong season in domestic terminal traffic is also noted in CairnsWatch.





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