Thursday, October 11, 2012

Qld Employment Shocker!

After a series of optimistic posts here at Loose Change I don't think there is any way to spin todays ABS employment data other than it is close to a shocker for Queensland? Conus Consulting has said what I would have:
In Queensland the picture looks unambiguously negative. The headline rate has increased once again and now sits at 6.3% (from an upwardly revised 6.0% in Aug) with the State shedding 20,800 jobs (over half of them full-time). The participation rate in QLD has fallen to 66.3 (from 66.7) which simply demonstrates how dire the headline unemployment rate increase is.
Although state data tends to naturally be more volatile than nationally, it is worth noting that the ABS Trend unemployment rate for QLD has also increased in Sept to 6.1% (from 5.9%); has increased for 5 consecutive months; and now sits at a level not seen since Dec 2003!
The trend data is prefered and at the highest trend unemployment since 2003 is also diverging from the other states apart from Tasmania (which is irrelevant anyway and should rightly be sold to NZ). It is Queensland in recent months which has driven the national unemployment rate higher!
Data for FNQ will be released next week but on the back of these state figures we cannot expect any good news for the region.It would appear that the easing of the national jobs picture can largely be laid at the door of a very weak (and weakening) QLD labour market.
Commentary and graphs from Grogs Gamut! Ceartainly anecdotal observations in recent months have been positive so we will await release next week of the always controversial regional data!

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