Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Migration fuels housing demand

The RP Data blog has a post on the most recent migration statistics and implications for housing demand:
The latest demographic update released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics late last month  provides an overview on population growth and migration flows up to March 2012.  The data revealed the rate of population growth, at 1.49%, was the highest rate of growth since the last quarter of 2009 and net overseas migration was at the highest level in two years, with just over 197,000 net overseas migrants arriving in Australia over the twelve months to the end of March.  That’s 18% higher than what was recorded a year ago, highlighting how significantly Australia’s rate of net migration growth has turned around.
Net overseas migration has recently kicked up in all the major states. However, from a Queensland perspective it is net interstate migration which is of most  interest:
Interestingly, Queensland has never had a net outflow of residents (and New South Wales has never had a net inflow) and the net inflow into the state is once again ramping up.

Interstate migration does appear to be turning after some years of decline albeit still below the long term historical average. Also interesting in that RBA graphic to observe the correlation in the early 90's of peak net migration into Queensland and out of Victoria which was the state hardest hit by the recession we had to have.

The latest HTW month-in-review however been pessimistic on Cairns population growth:
The latest figures on Cairns give the population growth rate at about the 1% mark, which implies that for the first time in many years population growth is coming solely from natural increase (excess of births over deaths) rather than migration. Or in other words, migration has slowed right down, and right now there are just as many people moving out of Cairns as there are moving in.
I'm not too sure on those numbers for population growth, the most recent I have seen are those published by OESR in April? 

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