Friday, July 13, 2012

G20 Hyperbole?

The announcement of the G20 summit coming to Queensland has brought forth positive expectations of an economic boost. The following, apparently from AAP, has been widely reported:     
An independent study of the Seoul G20 in 2010 found South Korea reaped economic benefits of about $20 billion, including new infrastructure, accommodation, global tourism promotion and extra conferences being booked before and after the summit.
In the Cairns Post report from Daniel Strudwick the "independent study" became an "audit":
An audit of a previous G20 leaders’ summit held in Seoul found South Korea reaped economic benefits of about $20 billion including new infrastructure and global tourism promotion.
An independent audit perhaps? I wonder where I have heard that term recently? However Radio 2UE in Sydney wasn't content with just $20 billion:
An independent study of the Seoul G20 in 2010 found Korea reaped economic benefits of around 20 billion dollars, and it's tipped Brisbane can gain benefits of around 50 billion dollars.
Wow! $50 billion! I wonder who tipped that as it isn't stated? Could it just be a simple error or multiple applied to this estimate?
Ms Gillard this morning confirmed Brisbane would host the G20 summit in November 2014, estimating it would result in a $50 million cash injection into the city’s economy.  

Ms Gillard said the Commonwealth had allocated $370 million for the cost of the G20.
To put these numbers in context I think The Queensland  GSP (Gross State Product) is around $260 billion? The unidentified study appears to have come from the Samsung Economic Research Institute. The G20 Seoul Summit, its implications which are actually predicted estimates prior to the event ( report requires free registration). It is not an 'audit'.

The $20 billion includes assumptions of benefits well beyond and only tenuously related to the actual G20 summit. The report estimated economic benefit from the actual summit a fraction of that. The context of these assumptions for Korea has little if any current relevance for Queensland. The report includes such as perceptions of reduced risk associated with North Korea and removal of an associated Korea discount, as well as extrapolated predictions for enhanced global corporate branding based on estimates for previous world cup soccer finals.

Such events also have substantial costs and disruptions. While there may be substantial economic benefits some of the claims and expectations appear well over-hyped.

Note: Given that estimates are for 4,000 delegates and 3,000 journalists, clearly the muck-out of the Augean journalism stables have some way to go?

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