Friday, July 6, 2012

A slightly fuzzy snapshot

Noted last week was a report in the Cairns Post on release of the Cairns Regional Council 2012 Economic Snapshot. The snapshot is available at the Council website and while I guess it should be regarded as an information or marketing document, it has some curious aspects which include this desription of the Cairns economy in recent years:
"The Cairns region economy has been growing at a rapid pace since 2009 and forecasts predict this growth to continue."
I'm not sure the definition of "rapid growth" fits with my own as illustrated by the accompanying graph in the snapshot:


Neither is there any reference to the forecasts of growth? Another curious aspect is the presentation of major centre populations on page ten which seems almost bizarre in relevance! It may serve a role as a marketing document for the region but not sure it has really aggregated well the available information?

Note: Some economic data with limit3ed interactivity is available here at the Council website. A profile of Cairns Council LGA is also available at OESR which has been updated for recent census data.

2 comments:

  1. I'll have to check those figures out. That increase in GRP in the mid 2000s is remarkable (even if you adjust for inflation). Is that the property investment boom that left the Cairns market over-supplied?

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  2. Have added a link to data at Council website. The numbers come from NIEIR (National Institute of Economic and Industry Research)with values apparently represented in constant 2008/2009 dollars.

    The growth period does correlate with the property boom and the era of easy credit. It was also a period of strong appreciation of the $AUD. I have always thought that while weak post the GFC the role of tourism has been overstated in the Far North boom/bust cycle as there was no inward internatonal tourism boom during that growth period that I am aware of? International terminal movements were trending flat to down during the corresponding years leading into the GFC although the domestic trend has been solid and quite consistent throughout.

    Would a small comparison with Spain be too cheeky?

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