Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Promises! Promises!

As soon as Anna Bligh announces an election date Loose Change can determine the feasibilty of temporarily relocating interstate until this unusual election season blows over. Somewhere else may be a good place to be in the next few months!

Anna Bligh was in town yesterday to promote the Cairns Region Economic Future 2012-2015 plan. Entertainment Precinct funding is the largest component in what is mostly an uninspiring list of projects loosely within strategic sectors. We were assured that this visit and announcement do not constitute campaigning.

This morning Campbell Newman let loose 'the vision thing' with a target of 420,000 jobs 'created' over the next six years with the objective of a 4% unemployment rate. My inner cynic generally deducts points from politicians who pretend some kind of control over somthing of limited influence. State politics is particularly prone to induce this cynicism when promises are made on such as jobs, economy, and the unemployment rate.

The Can-Do job target is for employment growth of about 2.75% p.a. over the next 6 years. The chart below is of annual percentage growth in Queensland employment since 1978. The red line is the 6 year moving average. Yep, looks like Campbell has set pretty close to the average as an aspiration. It would, he said, take hard work to be average and who could deny that?

Whether that and 4% unemployment can be achieved depends on so many factors, so far beyond the influence of a state guvmint, with no apparent consideration to any broader macroeconomic consideration. As they say, past performance is no guarantee!

Talking of whether, does anybody know the weather outlook for Tasmania over the next couple of months? Or the Falkland Islands? 



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