Sunday, January 29, 2012

Mind the gap?

Gene Tunny at Queensland Economy Watch has given me the privelege of some links and commentary on unemployent and the status of the FNQ economy.  Gene has linked there to a regional unemployment report from OESR with unemployment based on a 12 month moving average.

That's fine, and we know the regional data can be wildly volatile, but more likely to provide a cautious rear view mirror perspective. The positive in the latest data was all in male employment. So the chart below compares ABS estimates of numbers employed for males and females for the Far North. There is a clear divergent gender trend apparent here in the past year, post-Yasi.  

My previous post also linked to Ricardian Ambivalence who suggested that the gender gap is national and may be due to the current retail malaise. Mr Ambivalence also did warn that the purpose of the ABS methodolgy was an unemployment rate rather than employment estimates. There are some uncertainties here particularly in the way ABS does population assumptions which appear to now be running at about 1.4% pa growth for the Far North.

Still don't see how that should materially impact trends unless there are large inaccuracies? I have previously noted that we need to see a trend in employment which hasn't been there of any significance, although apparent in male employment, but not female. Also noted at the weekend was a small snippet in the CM where LNP Treasury spokesman Tim Nichols took a swipe at the Qld Guvmint over female unemployment 

PS: I meant to post on industry policy a few weeks back when the car industry debate began and tourism advocates asked for their share: Tourism asks for similar aid to carmakers, and did note that Gene was also quoted in The Australian for some work on protection for the car industry.

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