Friday, April 15, 2011

March Unemployment

"THE Far North's workforce has started to claw its way out of Queensland's summer of sorrow, with the number of unemployed falling by 4000 people." - Cairns Post

Woopee! Well, not quite. You see while the number of unemployed people fell in the statistically volatile ABS regional stats, the number of employed people also fell slightly by 500. What changed was just that the participation rate fell. Presumably the 4,000 stayed home and didn't actively look for work in the wet weather so weren't counted as unemployed. Trend growth in the total number employed is what we should be looking for.

Again, a significant feature of unemployment spikes in Cairns is that it is male unemployment. If you watched Alan Kohler on ABC news last week after the national release, he referred to a national trend the opposite of this, with male unemployment falling below female. KitchenSlut Global Economics is not a pessimist and willing to fearlessly predict strong improvement in these stats through the course of this year absent any additional black swans and including any CEC collapse!?

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