Saturday, November 7, 2009

the story of the australian economy

Peter Martin has posted six graphs ... ok one is a table ... to explain the australian economy in recent years from the RBA quarterly statement released on friday. The story really is pretty clear.

I will only post the international arrivals and departures trend for recent years as the one most directly applicable to Cairns perhaps. Departures swamp arrivals .......



What observations can be made from this?

1) Both arrivals and departures during the GFC have been much more resilient than in recent past shocks such as 9/11, the Asia crisis, the mild early noughties US recession, Iraq, internet bubble collapse and 2003 bear market.

2) The trend turnaround between arrivals and departures, correlate with other key trends such as currency, commodities and terms of trade related to China and emerging economies etc etc. Although any small impact from boosted immigration arrivals doesn't show up in the arrivals.
3) International arrivals were stalling long BEFORE the GFC!

Note here that the international arrivals for Cairns in the more recent past, at least as shown in the most recent graph in Cairnswatch from Rick Carr at HTW, show a far more severe downturn on internatinal arrivals in Cairns (ex transits) than apparent in arrivals nationally. Some events very specific to Cairns have impacted locally.

P.S. Amateur economists and chart addicts should also always keep an eye on the excellent monthly RBA chartpack.








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