Monday, October 19, 2009

KitchenSlut Global Markets

The muscular Australian dollar has grown as a topic of conversation almost to the extent of almost becoming the proverbial BBQ stopper. The conversation used to be property values and now it's currency and potential international travel destinations. While the $AUD is not back to pre-crisis levels against many major currencies it is well above where could have been expected and closing in on previous highs.

So, just on currency which are the countries we most strongly resemble. There has been some comment on the comparison with Canada which as a fellow 'developed nation' has a substantial commodity based economy also, but with a higher manufacturing exposure and a large exposure to the USA. Even there though as against the anything from the $US, the impoverished pound sterling, the euro and on to the Indian Rupee and the Chinese Renmimbi / Yuan, the hegemony of the $AUD has been complete!

But no, the countries we have most strongly tracked over the last year are ....

Brazil, where the stock market is a global best performer and back to 2007 levels.

and South Africa

Yes there were some volatile moves a year ago when the shit hit the fan but otherwise these are the two we track most closely in recent months! So Carnivale, in Rio not Port Douglas, is off the travel agenda for next year anyway with Europe, UK and most others cheap as chips. It was a year ago now that economics nobel laureate Paul Krugman coined the phrase "we are all brazillians now" in a different context.
Well KS Global Markets may not seem to have a local theme, but with currency the theme du jour we noted extensive advertising on Sea FM promoting get rich schemes from an obscure currency trading promoter with the prestigious web address

Oh dear, does this still work or has not the average Sea FM punter out there not worked out that what will be most heavily promoted will be the current themes and headlines? We may look into and post further on this.

Update: No sooner do we post than Brazil whacks a surprise 2% tax on all capital inflows to try and stem the rising real with consequences for markets and exchange rates. This Bloomberg report with comments on consquences of a 'currency bubble' in Brazil as the exodus from $US assets continues is also interesting. Meanwhile, The Australian has reported on currency related impacts on overseas student numbers .....  

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